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Prediction for CME (2022-03-25T06:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2022-03-25T06:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/19529/-1
CME Note: This CME is first visible to the East in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and to the SW in STEREO A COR2. As the CME propagates out of the field of view, the halo feature becomes more clear in both SOHO and STEREO A coronagraphs. The source of this CME is the M1.4 class flare from AR12974 (~S19E36) that peaked at 2022-03-25T05:26Z (based off of GOES-17 data). The flare and the associated EUV wave (which, as seen in SDO/AIA 193/171 seems to be directed mostly towards the West) are clearly seen in SDO/AIA 193, 171, 211, and 94. The associated dimming is not pronounced. There is a data gap in STEREO A EUVI 195 during this event, but a change in the associated Active Region is visible after the data gap. UPDATE (2022-03-29T20:05Z) from Fernando: I do not see any signature of an ICME any of the days [2022-03-27 to 03-28]. There is a clear SIR crossing, though.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2022-03-28T03:57Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note:

CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2022-03-25 11:29
 - Time at C2: 2022-03-25 06:12
 - Radial speed: 659.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 45 deg
 - Eruption location: S08E27
 Inferences:
   - Associated flare: M1.4 (S21E36). Peak at 2022-03-25 05:02
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 574.12 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2022-03-28 03:57 (i.e. predicted transit time: 68.75 hours)

Lead Time: 53.95 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2022-03-25T22:00Z

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